A few days ago during the show, the assertion was made that China or India would eventually overtake the United States as the next economic hegemon. While I don’t see the United States being replaced anytime soon as a global hegemon, the idea has made me curious about the future role of Asian countries like China or India, especially in light of their impressive economic growth.
I have been reading a very insightful book about the emergence of developing countries and their relationships to the United States. Fareed Zakaria’s The Post American World focuses not on the decline of the United States, but the “rise of the rest.” Nations like China, India, and Brazil have seen an unprecedented amount of economic growth over the past decade or so, and much of this growth can be attributed to the involvement of these nations in the arena of international trade.
Zakaria writes:
“America remains the global superpower today, but it is an enfeebled one. Its economy has troubles, its currency is sliding, and it faces long-term problems with its soaring entitlements and low savings. Anti-American sentiment is at an all-time high everywhere from Great Britain to Malaysia. But then the most striking shift between the 1990s and now has to do with America, but rather with the world at large… In 2007, China contributed more to the global growth than the United States did- the first time any nation has done so since at least the 1930s- and surpassed it as the world’s largest consumer market in several key categories.
In the long run this secular trend- the rise of the rest- will only gather strength, whatever the temporary ups and downs. At a military-political level, America still dominates the world, but the larger structure of unipolarity- economic, financial, cultural- is weakening. Washington still has no true rival, and will not for a very long while, but it faces a growing number of constraints.”
Many are beginning to call the last century, “The American Century,” and the current, “The Asian Century.”
From Doug Bandow of Cato:
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is off on her first foreign trip, and the destination of Asia is well-chosen. Economic, cultural and political ties with Europe remain strong, but Asia is likely to dominate the future, containing two possible superpowers as well as several other states with growing international influence. American power won’t disappear anytime soon, but the twenty-first century seems likely to be the Asian Century.
One of the countries which has been shaping much of the world today is Singapore. In fact, one of the local school districts here in the valley will be adopting a teaching method (math) that was developed in Singapore… not to mention, when drafting US trade policy, Singapore is often used as a model.
Fareed Zakaria interviewed Singapore’s prime minister a few months ago about Singapore’s growth, and more importantly, the growth of Asia in general:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLyPpUsNkAE[/youtube]
What does this mean for the United States? Do you see China or India eventually becoming economic superpowers? Is it reasonable to assume that the US will experience a gradual decline?
- Marc
Marc, I see two possible scenarios: 1) There is no “economic superpower” because we’ll be living in a world market, where no one country will be able to do enough to seriously affect the overall market, or 2) China and/or India will become the world economic leaders based on sheer size.
For me, as I’ve stated before, the definition of a superpower (whether it be militarily or economically) is not knowing the limits of a country. Up until a few years ago, the world didn’t know the limits of the American economy or military, and today, the world well knows the limits of both. I don’t think the United States is a superpower in the traditional sense anymore. Are we the most powerful country in the world today? Militarily, absolutely, economically, that’s debatable (I have a hard time saying we are when China is basically our daddy) but I just can’t agree with saying that America is a superpower anymore. I think we’re lumped right in with the other “great powers” of the world, China, India, Russia, U.K., Germany, et al…
Tyler, our economy is still over 3 times larger than that of our nearest competitor, Japan. Sure, we have problems, but that fact makes it clear that we are indeed a superpower.
While current trajectories predict that China and India will make rapid strides, a number of events could alter these trajectories. China has a large aging population that it will soon have to deal with. And who knows how long their form of government will persist.
Also, I think that as long as we are importing Singapore math, we should import some Singapore discipline.
I think it’s evidence enough of America’s “decline” that we can legitimately question wether she is a world super-power; Not long ago, the concept went completely unquestioned for a relatively long time.
There is no doubt in my mind that our current political and governmental system cannot succeed on it’s current course. Here’s the beauty of that situation – no matter what happens to the fictional singularity that is “The Government of the United States”, we as individuals will persist. What turned America into a super-power, beyond doubt, was her people’s open recognition that the power comes from the citizens. After all, how can you compete with such a brutally accurate interpretation of the natural world? We stumble now because many of us have forgotten this simple principle – we think that a few can and should decide what’s best in nearly every facet of our lives, so we dump all responsibility into the hands of individuals of whom it would be unreasonable to ask restitution for failed handling of such monumental responsibility. We ask fallible individuals to take the burden off of us, then ask them simply to fix it when the truth is made clear that nobody can be all things to all people. Once we all remember that we have the power, the system will right itself again. When enough of us reclaim our responsibility for ourselves and accept responsibility for others only as a matter of choice, we can begin our incline into ever-more prosperity and richness of life.