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What happens to Biden’s Senate seat in the event of a win, or loss?
Delaware Leaders Ponder Possible Senate Vacancy – Roll Call.
We were talking about this before we went on the air yesterday: What happens to Joe Biden’s Senate seat in the event of an Obama win, or a loss?
It turns out that much like Connecticut in 2000, Delaware law allows a senator to run for retention of his Senate seat and for the vice presidency at the same time, so if Obama were to lose the election, it’s likely that Biden would be re-elected to his Senate seat because his opponent is pretty weak.
If Obama wins, however, things get pretty interesting. According to the Roll Call article linked above, there’s speculation that Beau Biden, Joe’s son and the current attorney general of Delaware, could be appointed to the seat. There’s a kink there, however, as Beau Biden is slated to be deployed to Iraq this fall.
This whole issue is interesting because in the event of an Obama win, the Democrats lose two of their highest profile senators. While that isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things (as they’re going to have a big majority regardless) it could have ramifications in the future, especially if the GOP gets some momentum with a McCain win and carries good feelings into 2010.
-Tyler
How high does the ball bounce after the conventions?
This is an interesting analysis of the “bump” that presidential candidates have received in the polls after every convention since 1960. Sometimes the bumps are higher than others, sometimes there’s no bump, or a negative “thump.” This year, however, it’s expected that any bumps McCain and Obama receive will be short lived, especially considering the conventions are back to back.
-Tyler
HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES, Crystal Ball, U.Va..
Figure 1. REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION BOUNCES
In six of the 15 presidential elections since World War II, the overall third party vote has exceeded the Democratic or Republican margin of victory in the popular vote. Those half dozen elections are indicated below in BOLD. The number includes the trio of contests from 1992 through 2000, when none of the winners attained a majority of the popular vote.
| REPUBLICAN CONVENTION BOUNCES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Convention Date | Gallup Poll Before (date) | Gallup Poll After (date) | Bounce |
| 1960 | Jul. 25 – 28 | 33% (Jul. 16 – 21) | 45% (Jul. 30 – Aug. 4) | + 12 |
| 1964 | Jul. 13 – 16 | 19% (Jun. 25 – 30) | 26% (Jul. 23 – 28) | + 7 |
| 1968 | Aug. 5 – 8 | 37% (Jul. 18 – 23) | 43% (Sep. 1 – 6) | + 6 |
| 1972 | Aug. 21 – 23 | 55% (Aug. 4 – 7) | 66% (Aug. 25 – 28) | + 11 |
| 1976 | Aug. 16 – 19 | 27% (Aug. 6 – 9) | 36% (Aug. 27 – 30) | + 9 |
| 1980 | Jul. 14 – 17 | 40% (Jul. 11 – 14) | 46% (Jul. 30 – 31) | + 6 |
| 1984 | Aug. 20 – 23 | 48% (Aug. 10 – 13) | 57% (Sep. 6 – 9) | + 9 |
| 1988 | Aug. 15 – 18 | 42% (Aug. 5 – 7) | 48% (Aug. 19 – 21) | + 6 |
| 1992 | Aug. 17 – 20 | 32% (Aug. 13 – 14) | 38% (Aug. 21 – 23) | + 6 |
| 1996 | Aug. 12 – 15 | 36% (Aug. 11) | 41% (Aug. 16 – 18) | + 5 |
| 2000 | Jul. 31 – Aug. 3 | 46% (Jul. 25 – 26) | 50% (Aug. 4 – 5) | + 4 |
| 2004 | Aug. 30 – Sep. 2 | 45% (Aug. 23 – 25) | 47% (Sep. 3 – 5) | + 2 |
| Total Republican Bounces: 11 out of 12 | ||||
| DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION BOUNCES | ||||
| Year | Convention Date | Gallup Poll Before (date) | Gallup Poll After (date) | Bounce |
| 1960 | Jul. 11-15 | 46% (Jun. 30 – Jul. 5) | 51% (Jul. 16 – 21) | + 5 |
| 1964 | Aug. 24 – 27 | 63% (Aug. 6 – 11) | 62% (Sep. unspecified) | - 1 |
| 1968 | Aug. 26 – 29 | 26% (Aug. 7 – 12) | 30% (Sep. 1 – 6) | + 4 |
| 1972 | Jul. 10 – 13 | 32% (Jun. 16 – 19) | 32% (Jul. 14 – 17) | 0 |
| 1976 | Jul. 12 – 15 | 50% (Jun. 25 – 28) | 63% (Jul. 17 – 20) | + 13 |
| 1980 | Aug. 11-14 | 28% (Aug. 1 – 4) | 40% (Aug. 15 – 18) | + 12 |
| 1984 | Jul. 16 – 19 | 35% (Jul. 13 – 16) | 38% (Jul. 27 – 30) | +3 |
| 1988 | Jul. 18 – 21 | 47% (Jul. 8 – 10) | 54% (Jul. 22 – 24) | + 7 |
| 1992 | Jul. 13-16 | 31% (Jul. 9-10) | 59% (Jul. 17) | +28* |
| 1996 | Aug. 26 – 29 | 46% (Aug. 23 – 25) | 54% (Sep. 2 – 4) | + 8 |
| 2000 | Aug. 14 – 17 | 40% (Aug. 11 – 12) | 48% (Aug. 18 – 19) | + 8 |
| 2004 | Jul. 26 – 29 | 48% (Jul. 19 – 21) | 48% (Jul. 30 – Aug. 1) | 0 |
| Total Democratic Bounces: 9 out of 12 | ||||
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that Ross Perot dropped out of the ’92 race on on July 16, 1992. This impacted the polls following the Democratic National Convention which, ended on the same day, much more so than the GOP post-convention polls in August.
Old Vs. New: Bloggers on the Inside
I haven’t posted yet about my experience here in Denver for a couple of reasons. First, there has been so much going on I haven’t had much time. Taking it in, so to speak. Second, I’m no good at forcing a post unless I have something to say.
It is amazing to see what the DNC has done with this convention, not only for the party, but for the process itself in allowing an unprecedented level of access to those of us that – save for our little blogs – are average voters, minor contributors, and on again off again volunteers. On the same hand – as with any transition from “old” to “new” – in doing so, they have exposed for the world the flaws in the system. Not the flaws in the Democratic Party but in the political process itself.
What exists here in Denver this week is the fusion of political insiders and age old leadership with the very people who found recognition in exposing that process to the light of day, hoping – through critical and positive feedback alike – to make a better party and a better bloc of representation.
In the course of just a few days, I have seen bloggers sitting beside CNN film crews, and established media icons being scooped by soccer moms with Flickr accounts. I’ve seen stories reported more accurately in YouTube videos uploaded by college students, as well as bloggers embarrassed by getting a story wrong, when the traditional media dodged that bullet with a few simple phone calls to confirm the details. To me, it seems like a very constructive and progressive learning process that in the end benefits everyone concerned with a “watchdog” media in the political arenas.
But the “old” vs. “new” conflicts go beyond the coverage. I’ve been told of party leaders using press credentials granted to and intended for use by bloggers to get non-delegates on the convention floor and other “official” party business. One woman I met was coerced out of her press pass by her state leadership who then offered it to a “large donor” for the night. I’ve watched members of the traditional media sneer at these simple bloggers, as if their presence is somehow an affront to the access they have had exclusively, yet abused so frequently with shoddy journalism and half-assed follow up. Yet sometimes in the same room, I have seen a blogger’s eyes light up as they hold a microphone up for a comment from a well known Senator, and I’ve heard the excited talk and in-depth discussion from a group of college aged geeks just out of Q&A on healtcare or an interview with a candidate.
I’m reminding myself that this is a transitional period for the party, and the DNC deserves nothing short of two solid thumbs up for the effort they have made (and for being the first to make it). But without a doubt, there are many who still do not “get it.” They will, but we’ve still got a long way to go.
And resistance is futile.
Barack Roll’d
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65I0HNvTDH4[/youtube]
Back to school: Keeping the cost of college down
Before I go into a tirade, I’ll concede this argument: Attending college in Logan, Utah is dirt cheap compared to other places in the country.
Having said that, it’s still pretty expensive for some kids, and prices continue to go up at a rate that exceeds increases in what us poor students make in wages.
So what are the secrets to keeping the cost of college down where students can? You can only eat so much ramen and ride the bus so many times. We’re going to discuss this tonight on the show and hopefully can share some of your tips on being frugal while in college.
-Tyler
Dark days ahead for Logan Art Cinema?
The Herald Journal — Logan Art Cinema’s future darkens.
It’s tough to tell whether I’m sad or apathetic about the news that the Logan Art Cinema could be in its last days. I’ve only seen a handful of movies there (Shawn of the Dead, An Inconvenient Truth and The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou) and the seats have always been so uncomfortable, I usually fall asleep.
For my money, I prefer to watch an “artsy” (independent) movie in the comfort of my home. I don’t particularly like being around the liberal elite artsy crowd of Cache Valley that often convenes at these types of movies and other events. I guess at the end of the day, it’s sad that a business like this can’t make it here, but I won’t cry over it.
Also, from the article, the “movie buff” Steve Smith brought this nice nugget of mistruth to the article:
Both say they took on the work out of love for indie flicks. “I drove to Salt Lake to see ‘No Country For Old Men,’” Smith said. “Logan should have these choices. … It doesn’t have to be ‘Batman’ on every screen.”
I don’t know where Steve Smith was, but I saw “No Country For Old Men” at the new University Stadium 6 here in Logan.
-Tyler
All the cool kids are switching to natural gas cars
Mileage vs. safety? Number of natural gas car conversions explodes – Salt Lake Tribune.
It’s interesting to see this article come out because the topic of natural gas for cars has popped up randomly in my life about three times this past week. Most recently, I was getting a ride with Logan Taxi and the operator of the company said that later this year he was “going green” by switching to a natural gas vehicle. The reason? It’s costing him 25 cents a mile to drive (based on the mileage he’s getting in his vehicle that, from what I saw, had upwards of 180,000 miles on it).
I would love to have a natural gas vehicle. I am slightly worried, however, at the prospect of there being hundreds of “car bombs” out on the road.
-Tyler
IT’S BIDEN
Sources: Obama picks Joe Biden as VP candidate – CNN.com.
CNN, Drudge, Huffingtonpost and everyone else in the free world (except the Obama text message) are reporting that Barack Obama has selected Joe Biden as his VP running mate. So much for the bumper stickers.
Is the media abusing the use of scanners?
The Herald Journal loves to print “Breaking News” heard from a police scanner. Some of us are scanner buffs, but reporting things heard on a scanner is against the law. See below. In my opinion, the HJ is breaking federal law by always harping “we heard on the police scanner”. I would love to know if KVNU has ever considered this when reporting things also. The amount of info gained 10 years ago was quadruple what it is now; the cops are more aware then ever that people are listening, and things like this don’t help. The more they are aware and reminded of it, the less we will hear.
Here is an example taken from the HJ website on the bank robbery today:
From transmissions on the police scanner, it also appeared at least one and possibly two suspects were in custody.
Officers had an area cordoned off near the bank and close to dozen police cars were seen by witnesses.
The Herald Journal will update this report and verify information when more details are known.
http://hjnews.townnews.com/articles/2008/08/22/breaking_news/breakingnews01.txt
The bottom line:
-
It is illegal to listen in on cellular and cordless phone calls.
-
It is illegal to intercept encrypted or scrambled communications.
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It is illegal for scanner manufacturers to sell or import radio scanners that are capable of receiving cellular phone frequencies. (Note: This rule does not apply to sales by individuals and radio scanners made before 1985).
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It is illegal to modify radio scanners so that cellular phone frequencies can be received.
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It is illegal to use information you hear for personal gain. A common example is where a taxi driver listens to a competitor’s dispatch channel for fare pick-ups and then races over and picks-up the fares.
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It is illegal to use information you hear to aid in the commission of a crime.
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It is illegal to disclose information you hear to other persons.
A full text copy of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986 can be found here.
–Chilli
Unrelated homicide and bank robbery in Logan during past 24 hours
Logan police are investigating an apparent homicide case involving a husband and wife that reportedly happened on the west side of Logan late Thursday. The incident was at a home near 200 West and 200 North.
Also, Friday morning, police apprehended two suspects in connection with a bank robbery at the Zions Bank branch on 1400 North. One man was Tazered and arrested while the other fled on foot and was tackled near Taco Bell in North Logan.
Full details about these cases can be heard on KVNU throughout the day and this afternoon on KVNU’s For the People.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Stabbing Death/Homicide
On 8/21/08 at 8:57 PM, officers responded to 187 West 200 North in Logan on a 911 call of a domestic dispute between husband and wife. When officers arrived they found the husband, James Harper, had sustained a stab wound to his back.
Logan paramedics administered immediate medical attention at the scene, and transported James to Logan Regional Hospital where he succumbed to his injury a short time later. James was pronounced dead by an Emergency Room Physician at 10:28 PM.
The investigation lead to the development of probable cause to believe the wife, Bonnie Harper, had stabbed her husband. She was arrested and is currently being held on suspicion of homicide and intoxication.
The investigation is ongoing.
McCain will choose Romney as VP, so says TIME
According to TIME Magazine’s Mark Halperin, two unnamed GOP sources have confirmed that John McCain will select Mitt Romney as his choice for his vice presidential candidate.
Also, according to the Huffington Post, the smart money for Obama’s VP is on Joe Biden, and the much vaunted text message announcement can be expected Saturday morning in advance of an appearance in Illinois with Obama and his running mate.
-Tyler
4F’s: Friday’s Failure, Fiasco and Feat
We’re taking nominations now for Friday’s Failure, Fiasco and Feat. Who do you think was the biggest failure of the week? What was the biggest fiasco? And who is deserving of the award of the biggest feat of the week? Nominate away.
Ironies of the Surveillance State
For days at a time I will forget how angry the notion of an unchecked “surveillance state” makes me. I’ll hardly go on about it at all. Then, unexpectedly, I’ll find myself in a conversation with a “limited-government” Republican or Libertarian who in turn enthusiastically defends the handing over of their basic rights in the name of national security.
For perspective: Swampland:
“Intelligence activity in the past decades has, all too often, exceeded the restraints on the exercise of governmental power which are imposed by our country’s Constitution, laws and traditions.” — The Church Committee Report, 1976
Over the last several years, American concerns over the rewriting of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act were premised on very simple idea: Federal authorities cannot be trusted to behave responsibly. Though this concept was anchored in the U.S. Constitution, the actual concern was not just a conspiracy theory of ideologues and activists. For much of the 20th Century, the federal government grossly abused its power. According to the Church Committee report, which exposed the domestic spying abuses of the 1950s, 60s, and 70s, at one point the FBI had over 500,000 domestic intelligence files, including 65,000 that were opened in 1972 alone. An estimated 100,000 Americans were the subject of U.S. Army Intelligence files. Between 1940 and 1973, the CIA and the FBI opened and photographed hundreds of thousands of private first class letters under programs that avoided judicial supervision.
This person, a fairly high-level campaign staffer speaking on behalf of a prominent Utah Republican, told me – in the same 30 minute conversation – that “the government” should not be trusted with my health insurance, protecting my environment, or educating my children… but that I should trust them to responsibly “self manage” – without court oversight – the surveillance of my phone lines, bank accounts, online searches, emails, and even retail purchases because “they do so with goodwill.”
And he added (of course) that 9/11 changed everything.
- Jason
Legislature considering bill that would require sex offenders to have written permission from parents before going places with kids
Lawmakers Put Sex Offender Bill Through the Paces – KCPW.
Once again lawmakers know better than parents how to care for kids. This proposed law, which would require a registered sex offender who has been given permission to go places with the parent’s child (say, picking them up from school) to have written permission — not just verbal permission — to be with the kid.
Even if this were a good law, there’s too many “whys” about this. The note could be faked easily, for one.
-Tyler
Toll roads in Utah: Are they inevitable?
Fee-way: Could toll roads replace gas taxes in Utah? – Salt Lake Tribune.
I think toll roads are inevitable in Utah, and the express lane toll is the first step. But just because they’re inevitable doesn’t mean they’re a good idea, however.
Congestion pricing seems to be a good idea though and could probably be successful in Utah, but there are also a lot of detractors to congestion pricing. As we’ve seen with the Orange Coutny freeway that has congestion pricing, sometimes people will pay an exorbitant toll to sit in traffic that is just as bad as on the parallel freeway.
-Tyler
Utah Foundation issues report on teacher quality
IMPROVING TEACHER QUALITY IN UTAH
Today Utah Foundation has released a research brief entitled “Improving Teacher Quality in Utah.” The brief is available online at www.utahfoundation.org.
This brief, part of the Utah Priorities Project, is one in a series of research briefs and reports that addresses the top ten issues of concern for Utah residents. The findings of the January 2008 Utah Priorities Survey revealed K-12 education to be the second most important issue for Utahns in this election year, ranked behind energy (which included gas prices).
Teacher quality tied with four other education issues as the top concern about education in our 2008 Utah Priorities Survey. The other four were funding, how students are prepared for college or careers, class size, and teacher pay. This brief explains why teacher quality improvement is such an important issue, how it can be measured, some strategies attempted around the nation for improving teacher quality, and a review of research showing which tactics are most likely or unlikely to work.
The brief concludes that there is some consensus that teaching experience (up to 5 years), subject matter mastery for secondary subjects (particularly science and math), academic ability (teacher scores on achievement tests, quality of undergraduate institution), and well-designed professional development positively impact teacher quality. Surprisingly, there is little evidence that teaching experience beyond five years and graduate courses, the two determinants of teacher salary schedules, affect student achievement.
Utah Foundation Education Consultant Elizabeth Escandon said, “Research shows that teacher quality is the most important in-school factor affecting student learning. Improving teacher quality is the key to closing achievement gaps and enabling all students to succeed in today’s more demanding economy.”
Foundation President Steve Kroes said, “With teacher quality ranking so high on the list of voters’ concerns, it’s good to see state policymakers paying so much attention to the issue this year, with new programs for differential pay and an experiment in merit pay. It will be equally important to consider additional changes, including better training, improved on-the-job evaluations that have consequences, and incentives to draw teachers to hard-to-staff schools or programs.”
The report is freely available to the public on the web at www.utahfoundation.org.
***
The mission of Utah Foundation is to promote a thriving economy, a well-prepared workforce, and a high quality of life for Utahns by performing thorough, well-supported research that helps policymakers, business and community leaders, and citizens better understand complex issues and providing practical, well-reasoned recommendations for policy change.
America Not as Divided as We Think?
A great webcam debate from one of my favorite sites, bloggingheads.tv. The topic is “A Divided America” and the role of religion in politics. (Length 43:36)
Should Logan’s council be elected by district?
At Tuesday night’s Logan Municipal Council meeting, the council discussed “districting” the council, so that each member would be elected to represent a district.
KVNU’s Craig Hislop conducted an interview with Councilwoman Tami Pyfer and it will be heard on KVNU’s For the People tonight. The general consensus seems to be that of the five-member council, having three be elected by district and two at-large is the way to go for now.
I think districting is a good idea, but my opinion as far as having a hybrid at large/districted council is still being decided. What do you think?
-Tyler
Fire at Logan Justice Building expansion
The new addition to the Logan Justice Building caught fire early Wednesday afternoon. Logan Fire Chief Mark Meaker says the fire started on the roof of the southeast side of the building, which is adjacent to Logan City Hall. The cause had not been determined as of about 2:30 p.m., but Meaker said welders were on the roof working at the time and it appeared that some foam insulation was involved. Meaker said there was a quick response and it took about 10 minutes to extinguish the fire. No evacuations from surrounding buildings were necessary.
The under-construction portion of the building is slated to house the Logan City Police Department when the building opens, and the existing portion of the Justice Building will be the new City Hall.
Utah Blogger Press Corps. – Kick Off Party / Open House Tonight
August 18, 2008
For Immediate Release
Contact
Rob Miller
801-706-6203
Intensive Planning and Fundraising Top Last Minute Efforts
Salt Lake City, Utah – Rob Miller, owner of the political blog The Utah Amicus, and Vice Chair of the Utah State Democratic Party, has assembled a team of Utah political bloggers and activists to travel to Denver for the Democratic National Convention next week.
In 2008, the Democratic National Committee is opening their Convention to more people than ever before. Democrats, independents, and Republicans from around the country have been invited to attend. Bloggers, especially members of the DNCC State Bloggers Corps, will have unprecedented access to Convention activities.
In an effort to make their Convention coverage more responsive and interactive, The Utah Amicus Team will be holding an open house / kick off party on Wednesday, to coordinate and plan covered activities and meet with Democratic Party activists and other community members.
What: The Utah Amicus DNC Bloggers Kick Off Party
When: August 20 at 7 p.m. (MDT).
Where: 7119 West 8050 South, West Jordan
The media and community are encouraged to attend.
Follow the Utah Bloggers daily Convention reports on http://utahamicus.blogspot.com/ .
# # #
Rob Miller – Utah State Democratic Party Vice-Chair, owner of the Utah Amicus.
Jeff Bell – Owner of JMBell.org; host of KSL’ s Left of the Dial.
Jason Williams – Co-Owner The Sidetrack
Craig Blanch – Co-Owner The Sidetrack
Aaron Thompson – Utah Amicus Writer
Bob Aagard – Owner the World, According To Me












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